In actuality: Probably not a lot. I think it’s probably a lot more to do with the dispatcher contacting those countries and asking for permission to fly over which they always need, and those countries breaking with tradition by saying “Absolutely the fuck not I like winning elections thank you.”

In my imagined fantasy scenario: You know, there’s nothing really stopping one of those countries from intercepting the plane wherever it goes. All it would take is for one of the wilder governments like Italy or Türkiye to just send up some fighters, be prepared for Israel to use its fighters in turn and hey our pilots get some practice, force the plane to land, and then when Netanyahu gets off the plane yelling about such a miscarriage of justice, hand him some printouts of news articles about their violations of Iran’s, Qatar’s, and Lebanon’s national sovereignty with a big smirk on your face and your eyebrows up high. And then tackle him on the tarmac and deliver him to the ICC, job done.

It’ll never happen, I sort of doubt that Israel would use their nukes in response but it’s hard to say for sure, but it sure would be fulfilling to watch it if someone did decide today’s the day.