reminder that trade with the usa is only 2% of chinas total GDP, so this would be a gross 1% change assuming no other countries pick up the slack and that seems to be trending that way
GDP is a misleading thing to look at. 15% of Chinese exports go to the US. 7% of commodities imported to China come from the US. The US is the largest trade partner of China. It’s still manageable for China to cut off trade from the US, but it’s more significant than 2%.
I think it’s misleading to only look at this in terms of their trade exclusively. This is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. The vast majority of their GDP, their economic activity, is internal.
Let’s break this down to something simpler. Let’s say I’m an artist and produce paintings. I sell 997. I give my wife 2. I give my mom 1. Wow, my wife is taking 66% of all my donated paintings. She’s such a big source of paintings I give away for free. Isn’t this a major issue for me? Not really. It’s 0.2% of the paintings I produce. It’s a drop in the bucket of my total painting production.
Now, 2% of a countries GDP is a big deal. If any sizeable country loses 2% of their GDP in the matter of a month that causes a load of pain. That can mean businesses closing, people being laid off, rents being unpaid, and so on. It’s an issue any government under any system will have to deal with.
The west is painting the loss of trade to the USA as some economic nuke being set off in China because they are using the numbers you present. Those numbers are fine. They only show part of the picture. When you start considering the Chinese economy as a whole you realize that while this trade war is a pain point for them it is absolutely one that is manageable for them. That’s why I point this out in regards to their total GDP.
To think that a country can rely on it’s own internal economy is the foolish mistake that Trump is making. China is not foolish in this way. They know that the growth of their economy is accomplished by trade with other countries. Trading with the US was very useful for the growth of China’s economy. When China reduces trade with the US, they will increase trade with other countries to compensate, not rely on internal economy.
This is possibly why China is doing One Belt One Road, because they want to create more trading partners. Which is why I think it is misleading to compare their internal economy with their international trade.
I never claimed that China is attempting to solely rely on their own internal economy. I also don’t think they are making the same mistake as Trump. See, Trump went into a trade war with the entire fucking world. China did not. This is an important distinction because China has the entire fucking world to do trade with. This isn’t “possibly” why China is doing OBOR, it is it’s explicitly stated reason as well as the obvious reason.
Why you would come in here and present these ideas as if perhaps I may have pushed them is strange to me because I did not. In fact, nobody would because they are foolish, ignorant ideas. Much like your insistence that we must isolate the trade portion of a country’s economy when we consider how a trade war might affect that economy.
I made this statement “GDP is a misleading thing to look at.” Then the first reply to your comment where you mention first the 2% GDP number, the OP of the post has replied to you “barely noticeable drop in exports for China.” Then you replied to that user, correcting them that the 2% number is more significant than it appears. You are seeing in real time that the information you provided has the capability of misleading people.
The 2% number that you are citing also doesn’t account for the imports that China receives from the US, which makes up 7% of all imports. Internal trade and external trade are misleading to compare because external trades are for the purpose of acquiring things that can not be gotten internally. These are among reasons why I say 2% is a misleading number to look at when you consider the total impact of loss of trade.
China knows that it is being hurt a decent amount by losing trade with the US. This is why China has said to drop the tariffs. China has not denied that the tariffs are hurting them. China likes doing trade with the US. What the Chinese government has said is that the US is a bully and that bullies take a mile when you give them an inch. China is hoping that the US concedes to their self-inflicted wounds and then continues to do trades with China.
The 2% GDP number includes all trade with the USA. Is around 2.8%. So you are wrong. I am including that.
Trade with the USA, imports and exports, is around 10% of China’s trade. That percentage has been trending downwards in recent years.
The articles that discuss this issue are all presenting it as how it affects each economy. If we want to understand that we MUST consider the percentage of the GDP that this trade is for us to have any inkling on the bigger national picture. Looking at trade alone tells us nothing. It’s missing key information we need to evaluate this impact. Without presenting this number, you are misleading people as seen in any other thread around the internet that discusses this topic. We can literally see it on a mass scale (not just one person making an off the cuff comment) in real time.
Of course China doesn’t want that 2% deduction in their GDP. I never claimed otherwise. You are once again presenting a talking as if it came out my mouth. Just shove your hand up my ass and puppet my mouth already.
the harm will be managed very diligently by the chinese. they want to show the world that they cant be bullied and that they can insulate their producers internally. its about sending a message of stability and reliability for them. theyll just pour money on it if they have to becuase socialism with chinese characteristics has no issues with that when needed
“Barely noticeable drop” is a bit of an understatement I’d wager. Maybe by comparison. 1% of the Chinese GDP is still the livelihood of millions of people.
This is valid, but should also take into consideration that China isn’t a capitalist wasteland; I presume those millions will not end up starving int the streets.
i wouldnt say its nothing, the us is a significant portion of exports for china but as a total of their gdp its a small amount. a country with 1.4 billion people is going to have a ton of internal economic activity.
Sure, it’s not nothing, but I imagine it’s an amount of trade that can be redirected either internally or towards other friendly economies. There might be some short term pain, but that’s where the government can step in to ensure a smooth transition away from reliance on US.
I mean BRICS is growing economically, which means rising internal consumption. Meanwhile, consumption in US is dropping which means that even without tariffs there will be less demand going forward. There will definitely be some pain in the short term, but I expect it will get resolved within a year. I’m basing this on how quickly Russia was able to adapt to being cut off from trade from the west. If Russia was able to do this, you can bet China can do it better.
China certainly played a role, but Russia didn’t adapt solely because of China. Russia was preparing for this eventuality since at least 2014, and has now become largely an autarky in terms of all the necessities. Russia also does large amounts of trade with Africa, Asia, Middle East, and Latin America. On top of that, standard of living in Russia is now growing which means rise in consumption which creates a market for China. Russia is not as big as the US, but it’s still a market of of over 143 million. The economies of countries in ASEAN are rapidly growing as well. I expect that’s where China will be refocusing trade along with boosting domestic consumption.
reminder that trade with the usa is only 2% of chinas total GDP, so this would be a gross 1% change assuming no other countries pick up the slack and that seems to be trending that way
GDP is a misleading thing to look at. 15% of Chinese exports go to the US. 7% of commodities imported to China come from the US. The US is the largest trade partner of China. It’s still manageable for China to cut off trade from the US, but it’s more significant than 2%.
I think it’s misleading to only look at this in terms of their trade exclusively. This is a country of 1.4 BILLION people. The vast majority of their GDP, their economic activity, is internal.
Let’s break this down to something simpler. Let’s say I’m an artist and produce paintings. I sell 997. I give my wife 2. I give my mom 1. Wow, my wife is taking 66% of all my donated paintings. She’s such a big source of paintings I give away for free. Isn’t this a major issue for me? Not really. It’s 0.2% of the paintings I produce. It’s a drop in the bucket of my total painting production.
Now, 2% of a countries GDP is a big deal. If any sizeable country loses 2% of their GDP in the matter of a month that causes a load of pain. That can mean businesses closing, people being laid off, rents being unpaid, and so on. It’s an issue any government under any system will have to deal with.
The west is painting the loss of trade to the USA as some economic nuke being set off in China because they are using the numbers you present. Those numbers are fine. They only show part of the picture. When you start considering the Chinese economy as a whole you realize that while this trade war is a pain point for them it is absolutely one that is manageable for them. That’s why I point this out in regards to their total GDP.
To think that a country can rely on it’s own internal economy is the foolish mistake that Trump is making. China is not foolish in this way. They know that the growth of their economy is accomplished by trade with other countries. Trading with the US was very useful for the growth of China’s economy. When China reduces trade with the US, they will increase trade with other countries to compensate, not rely on internal economy.
This is possibly why China is doing One Belt One Road, because they want to create more trading partners. Which is why I think it is misleading to compare their internal economy with their international trade.
I never claimed that China is attempting to solely rely on their own internal economy. I also don’t think they are making the same mistake as Trump. See, Trump went into a trade war with the entire fucking world. China did not. This is an important distinction because China has the entire fucking world to do trade with. This isn’t “possibly” why China is doing OBOR, it is it’s explicitly stated reason as well as the obvious reason.
Why you would come in here and present these ideas as if perhaps I may have pushed them is strange to me because I did not. In fact, nobody would because they are foolish, ignorant ideas. Much like your insistence that we must isolate the trade portion of a country’s economy when we consider how a trade war might affect that economy.
I made this statement “GDP is a misleading thing to look at.” Then the first reply to your comment where you mention first the 2% GDP number, the OP of the post has replied to you “barely noticeable drop in exports for China.” Then you replied to that user, correcting them that the 2% number is more significant than it appears. You are seeing in real time that the information you provided has the capability of misleading people.
The 2% number that you are citing also doesn’t account for the imports that China receives from the US, which makes up 7% of all imports. Internal trade and external trade are misleading to compare because external trades are for the purpose of acquiring things that can not be gotten internally. These are among reasons why I say 2% is a misleading number to look at when you consider the total impact of loss of trade.
China knows that it is being hurt a decent amount by losing trade with the US. This is why China has said to drop the tariffs. China has not denied that the tariffs are hurting them. China likes doing trade with the US. What the Chinese government has said is that the US is a bully and that bullies take a mile when you give them an inch. China is hoping that the US concedes to their self-inflicted wounds and then continues to do trades with China.
Look, you can be wrong. It’s okay.
The 2% GDP number includes all trade with the USA. Is around 2.8%. So you are wrong. I am including that.
Trade with the USA, imports and exports, is around 10% of China’s trade. That percentage has been trending downwards in recent years.
The articles that discuss this issue are all presenting it as how it affects each economy. If we want to understand that we MUST consider the percentage of the GDP that this trade is for us to have any inkling on the bigger national picture. Looking at trade alone tells us nothing. It’s missing key information we need to evaluate this impact. Without presenting this number, you are misleading people as seen in any other thread around the internet that discusses this topic. We can literally see it on a mass scale (not just one person making an off the cuff comment) in real time.
Of course China doesn’t want that 2% deduction in their GDP. I never claimed otherwise. You are once again presenting a talking as if it came out my mouth. Just shove your hand up my ass and puppet my mouth already.
US blowing it’s legs off above the knees to deal some harm to China
the harm will be managed very diligently by the chinese. they want to show the world that they cant be bullied and that they can insulate their producers internally. its about sending a message of stability and reliability for them. theyll just pour money on it if they have to becuase socialism with chinese characteristics has no issues with that when needed
Exactly, this is a huge disaster from US perspective, and barely noticeable drop in exports for China.
“Barely noticeable drop” is a bit of an understatement I’d wager. Maybe by comparison. 1% of the Chinese GDP is still the livelihood of millions of people.
This is valid, but should also take into consideration that China isn’t a capitalist wasteland; I presume those millions will not end up starving int the streets.
i wouldnt say its nothing, the us is a significant portion of exports for china but as a total of their gdp its a small amount. a country with 1.4 billion people is going to have a ton of internal economic activity.
Sure, it’s not nothing, but I imagine it’s an amount of trade that can be redirected either internally or towards other friendly economies. There might be some short term pain, but that’s where the government can step in to ensure a smooth transition away from reliance on US.
I think a portion of what was lost to the USA can be diverted but certainly not all of it.
I mean BRICS is growing economically, which means rising internal consumption. Meanwhile, consumption in US is dropping which means that even without tariffs there will be less demand going forward. There will definitely be some pain in the short term, but I expect it will get resolved within a year. I’m basing this on how quickly Russia was able to adapt to being cut off from trade from the west. If Russia was able to do this, you can bet China can do it better.
I don’t think we can directly compare. Russia adapted because of China. China filled the gap. Russia cannot reciprocate in this way.
China certainly played a role, but Russia didn’t adapt solely because of China. Russia was preparing for this eventuality since at least 2014, and has now become largely an autarky in terms of all the necessities. Russia also does large amounts of trade with Africa, Asia, Middle East, and Latin America. On top of that, standard of living in Russia is now growing which means rise in consumption which creates a market for China. Russia is not as big as the US, but it’s still a market of of over 143 million. The economies of countries in ASEAN are rapidly growing as well. I expect that’s where China will be refocusing trade along with boosting domestic consumption.