If I was China I would push hard. Like say you’ll only resume rare earth exports if the US lifts semiconductor and litography embargos
While based, this would accelerate a hot war
tbh it’s possible a hot war would be 2 months of China’s Red Banner-9s fending off stealth bombers then 10 months of United States ran out of Tungsten.
From a game theory perspective, I think a war, even a seemingly winnable one, isn’t in their best interests. They know they are going to win long term, so taking short term risks to expedite change is unnecessary. Hot wars are always more complex than they seem and always have unintended consequences. For instance, it could interrupt China’s trade with other NATO countries and their vassals. The US might miraculously find deposits of rare earth metals and then the war could get very long and very bloody.
The US might miraculously find deposits of rare earth metals
Reminder that rare earths are not actually rare, it’s just that China has 85% of world refining capacity for them as it takes some doing. In a full on war footing, pull out all the brakes type situation the US could absolutely spin up some not as efficient, very dangerous for workers, expensive, but workable emergency capacity, it wouldn’t put them on par with China but it would be enough to continue a war with selective strikes (instead of constant, high intensity bombardments hourly for weeks on end) and after that point the US would almost certainly continue to build up that capacity and make it a point to attempt to wean the rest of the world off Chinese rare earths.
It would also result in all kinds of other unforeseen consequences. For example the US may have the capacity to hack and physically damage or destroy Chinese electrical or other infrastructure but obviously isn’t going to do that right now. But if a hot war unfolds and especially one where the US isn’t winning they might break out those offensive state malware toolboxes and start wreaking incredible havoc within China that could cost a lot of money, take a lot of lives and result in a lot of chaos, uncertainty and problems that would take quite some time to sort out. The more electronically connected and “smart” everything is as in China the easier it is to fuck up everything, ironically the US by not being as “advanced” as China in adopting network connectivity to various things is a harder target in this regard. China is well aware of this risk, the US basically compromised everything in China with their shipments of NSA hardware back-door chipped Cisco routers and devices which Snowden revealed and though it’s been more than a decade since they became aware I have to assume they’re still inside many systems lurking and waiting.
The US might miraculously find deposits of rare earth metals and then the war could get very long and very bloody.
If there was a realistic enormous certified deposit of every single rare earth mineral in the most Goldilocks location and the deck was stacked for this deus ex machina miracle, it wouldn’t matter.
In mining a deposit of minerals is a concentration of minerals. Think Minecraft, in a 9x9x9 cube the vein takes up an 8x8x9 space and runs into the next 9x9x9 cube. That’s what mining companies look for.
Rare earths are called rare earths not because there are few deposits, it’s because they’re more uniformly distributed in low quantities in mineral deposits. Again think Minecraft, but for every 9x9x9 cube there is a single block of antimony.
Rare earths cannot create mining economies of scale. The reason China has the most rare earth production is because they “use every part of the Buffallo” more than other country’s mining companies do. Rare earths are usually not refined from minerals that contain them in America because the labor to do so is too expensive. America’s access to rare earths has always been an economic question of cheap labor, not a question of locating the resources.
Yeah but the real question is if China has any defense against nukes because unfortunately the west is ran by madmen who are no longer deterred by mutually assured destruction
They have the ability to stop incoming ICBMs, I can’t guess if the success rate is 10% or 90%, but it’s there.
It makes sense to do so given that the US is already backing down.
The potential greatest fumble of human history. You thought it would be Sleepy Joe holding the bag but it’s ol’ Donny Deals bringing about end of America Dominance
on the phone with his accountant
“what do you mean there’s no box on the bankruptcy form for ‘country’?”a dynamic duo tearing down the dread empire
“Dread Empire” sounds cool and reminds us yes America bad. I dig it.
Ol Trumpster is 0 for 2 on trade wars against China, and now China has more allies if he tries a hot war.
4d chess
The d in 4d doesn’t stand for dimensional but for delusional.
4D Russian Roulette
😄
lmao at this reply
He didn’t say he will fold. And he won’t.
However if no negotiation happens, the US will unilaterally take a decision based on their self-interest.
“Trump won’t fold, he’ll just *describes folding*.”
It’s the
“I’m not owned” meme
I’m out of touch with hexbearian stickers
Is paper tiger a reference to Trump or the US? I may not understand this haha
Yeah, Mao famously referred to America as a paper tiger.
In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of; it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain. I believe that it is nothing but a paper tiger
Thank you so much!
But China didn’t get intimidated and responded in kind, and 21 days after not a single country - not one - made a “deal” with the US against China, or even signaled their intention to do so.
Besides the U.S. economy not being as hegemonic as burgerites imagine it to be, it makes sense that countries would side with the country that’s consistently built mutual growth across the globe rather than the unstable bully. The latter is much more likely to turn on you.
I’m surprised that the EU and places like Canada and Australia didn’t “take the deal” here. I’m very surprised to see our ruling class here actually put our country ahead of America for a change. Alas we have an election in a month so if the libs get in they’ll just do whatever America asks.
Indeed, the unhinged policy that US pursues makes it pretty clear whom to side with here. Even if countries have differences with China, they can rely on China to act in a rational way which makes the relationship predictable. Meanwhile, the US often runs policy that’s counter to its own interests.
