This is one of the reasons I really liked the Saab offer. Supporting a domestic aerospace defence industry is probably a good strategic aim.

GCAP would also offer a chance to foster our domestic aerospace industry.

There are other combinations that achieve much the same though. FCAS (Future Combat Air System) is similar to GCAP, a joint France, Germany and Spain project, but it isn’t scheduled to deliver until 2040.

I am in no position to know what’s “best”, but it’s undeniable that there are some good options. It’s unfortunate though that there will be a cost to pay that we went with F-35 all those years ago. Still don’t have a Canadian F-35 in the air.

Another piece of trivia, that I really don’t know if significant is that Sweden nearly joined GCAP. If we went with Gripen and GCAP, and Sweden rejoined GCAP there might be opportunities for long term partnerships. Then again I think there are similar opportunities with Eurofighter and FCAS.

F-35 is the most advanced aircraft currently available. We’ve also already sunk enough money into the program to pay for the first 16 IIRC. This puts us in an awkward position, considering the possibility of degraded functionality of the F-35 without US assistance¹.

One of the worst ways to balloon military spending without getting anything in return is to keep changing your mind and hanging procurement up in endless indecision. Combined with the money already spent, I think we have to stick with F-35 for at least a bit.

I like the Gripen, and I’d suggest a switching some of our 88 fighters to Gripen’s, but apparently Gripen’s aren’t that much cheaper.

Long term though, I think Canada should get in on GCAP, the Global Combat Air Program. It’s not expected to deliver until 2035 if everything sticks to plan, so we’d still need the F-35 or Gripens I was mentioning in the interim.

¹ My understanding is that the “kill-switch” myth is pretty much that, a myth. There are software systems that depend on the US, apparently ALIS/ODIN, plus the MDF file updates. The possibility of a kill-switch can’t be totally excluded IMO though, there is a lot of software in the F-35, and the US writes and patches it all. Even if there isn’t a kill-switch, the US knows what vulnerabilities they are patching, and if any of them where exploitable, I’d imagine they’d know.

I’ve been advocating joining GCAP, an effort by Japan, UK and Italy to make a 6th gen fighter. It isn’t scheduled to deliver the final design until 2035 though, so we would still need a stopgap.

Still, it would send a pretty strong signal and also allow as a path to reinvigorate our domestic aerospace defence industry.