Image is of protestors burning down the Singha Durbar, the seat of Nepal’s government offices in Kathmandu.

For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @[email protected]’s comment here.

Following a “anti-corruption” protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as “Gen Z protests”, and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it’s wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it’s more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.

Vijay Prashad has offered his five theses as to why Nepal’s government fell that goes beyond non-specific terms like “corruption” or “color revolution”:

  1. Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.

  2. The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.

  3. The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India’s BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.

  4. Of the countries that aren’t tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.

  5. The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India’s Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.

I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    541·
    7 days ago

    Yesterday three Russian MiG 31BM aircraft entered Estonian airspace for 12-13 minutes, and were escorted out by Italian F-35As and photographed by Swedish Gripens. The MiG 31s were only armed with infrared guided short range R-73/74 air to air missiles, no radar guided missiles.

    This inline with previous Russian actions in the realm of chipping away at deterrence of it’s adversaries, such as flying styrofoam Gerbera drones/decoys into Poland during Russian air raids in Ukraine, hosting ambiguous military exercises on the borders, etc. The playbook is quite simple:

    • Take aggressive action but with plausible deniability. In this case, the MiG 31s not being armed with R-33/37 long range radar guided missiles. Previously, for instance flying styrofoam decoy drones into Poland instead of the Geran drones armed with warheads, and the infamous “military exercises” on Ukraine’s borders before the war.
    • Make up a completely nonsensical story devoid of any factual basis to spread in the Russian information space and for domestic audiences, and stick to it no matter how ridiculous. This acts to muddy the waters and increase focus on the plausible deniability.
    • Rely on said plausible deniability and ambiguity to prevent any response. Italy and Sweden aren’t going to start a war with Russia over semi armed MiGs flying over Estonia. Poland is not going to start a war over bits of styrofoam.
    • Use these actions to “shift the goalposts” for what is considered normal behaviour.
    • Eventually take real action (for instance, invading Ukraine).
    • P1d40n3 [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      33·
      7 days ago

      Why the fuck are they playing with fire? This can only end poorly. Are the Russians this confident that the US will never approve NATO strikes?

      • Kieselguhr [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
        52·
        7 days ago
        • Reminding the Baltics that they are very close, and they will be first hit, so better stop barking, a couple of italian fighters won’t save them
        • Very expensive trolling
        • Collecting empirical data of NATO response

        Any combination of the above

      • LeonTreatsky [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        41·
        7 days ago

        NATO is doing the same thing.

        Russia not pushing the boundaries isn’t really keeping anything in check, it’s just giving NATO free reign to push what is acceptable while Russia is left being condemned for genocide for entirely normal, restrained conduct.

          • LeonTreatsky [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
            34·
            7 days ago

            NATO is supplying long range missiles that are being used to hit targets over the border, aimed by NATO satellites and personnel?

            A couple of minor border violations with minimally armed jets and unarmed drones is a rather limited escalation compared to directly launching weapons at Russian assets.

          • junebug2 [she/her, comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
            16·
            7 days ago

            This Western-ish article is from July 2024 and this RT article is from September 2023. There’s probably a qualitative difference between flying over the Black Sea and buzzing Tallinn. That said, Ukraine has carried out a number of strikes on Crimea and naval targets, and these NATO reconnaissance flights almost certainly helped with that

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        30·
        7 days ago

        The strategy has worked for Russia so far since 2008 from their perspective, so they see no reason to stop. Invading the Baltics would be much easier than Ukraine. Yes it can end poorly, but Russia can’t confront NATO directly, hence the current strategy. As the Ukraine war grinds on and on, Russia has less and less to lose, and will be more keen to carry out such provocations.

      • companero [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        23·
        7 days ago

        Russia has a dangerous combo of inferiority in conventional weapons and superiority in nuclear/strategic ones.

        This means that, if NATO declares war on Russia with intent to win, use of nuclear weapons is all but guaranteed, and Russia will “win” on the nuclear escalation ladder.

        • Kieselguhr [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
          32·
          7 days ago

          Russia has a dangerous combo of inferiority in conventional weapons and superiority in nuclear/strategic ones.

          This means that, if NATO declares war on Russia with intent to win, use of nuclear weapons is all but guaranteed, and Russia will “win” on the nuclear escalation ladder.

          I mean theoretically NATO could win without nuclear weapons, but could they practically?

          It would mean invading Russia from two sides or something? Coalition of the willing lost in Afghanistan and Russia would be 30x as bad an adversary

          NATO is politically fractured, not a monolith even with US hegemony and logistics would be a nightmare

    • WeedReference420 [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      22·
      7 days ago

      The Russian air force quite often does this sort of thing in UK airspace and has been for a while because every time it happens the whole right wing tabloid-sphere will act like we’re on the verge of World War 3 even though it’s been happening for decades at this point.

      • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
        28·
        7 days ago

        Not in UK’s actual sovereign airspace. Russian flights into air defence identification zones are common, but not into a nation’s sovereign airspace, there is a big difference. A nation’s sovereign airspace (and territorial waters) is everything up to 12 miles/19.2km editing for correction 12 nautical miles/22km from it’s coastline. Russian aircraft were a few kilometres from the Estonian capital.

        • cfgaussian@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
          111·
          7 days ago

          As far as i’m concerned this doesn’t even count as a violation. It’s not even over their landmass. The Baltics just love to whine and play the victim. Russia did nothing wrong. Wake me up when they start flying in a straight line from Moscow to Kaliningrad over Lithuania. NATO still won’t do anything even then, because nobody is going to start WW3 over some Baltics villages masquerading as countries.

          • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
            7·
            7 days ago

            Sovereignty over a nation’s territorial waters and skies is customary international law. You can read the UN agreement here. Both Estonia and Russia are participants.

            Important to note:

            1. The sovereignty of a coastal State extends, beyond its land territory and internal waters and, in the case of an archipelagic State, its archipelagic waters, to an adjacent belt of sea, described as the territorial sea.
            1. This sovereignty extends to the air space over the territorial sea as well as to its bed and subsoil.

            The sovereignty over the territorial sea is exercised subject to this Convention and to other rules of international law

            Every State has the right to establish the breadth of its territorial sea up to a limit not exceeding 12 nautical miles, measured from baselines determined in accordance with this Convention.

              • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.netEnglish
                61·
                6 days ago

                The West is constantly violating China’s territorial waters when they sail through the Taiwan strait:

                They are by definition not doing so, if they were, China would sink those ships. Your own source states that the straight is 70 nautical miles at it’s narrowest. If both China and Taiwan claim 12 nautical miles from their coastline, that still leaves a 46 nautical mile wide channel that is in international waters. The Chinese foreign minister in this article is not stating a fact, there is no need to uncritically accept what he says. He is wrong, and the article is making an obtuse argument. “International waters” is well understood to include everything outside of the territorial sea, including economic zones and air defence identification zones. China, Taiwan, and the USA all follow this understanding of 12 nautical miles being the limit for territorial waters and airspace; if they didn’t, we would currently be at war.