Putin is a master troll.
Declaring a short unilateral ceasefire with the pretext of being a goodwill gesture is a good move. It shows Trump that Russia is serious about negotiations to bring the war to an end and to show that Russia isn’t opposed to ceasefires in general. And it helps make the point that long term ceasefires with no agreements or monitoring aren’t really ceasefires.
But…
Declaring a unilateral ceasefire in celebration of the defeat of the nazi 3rd reich and he’s asking the banderite neo-nazis to observe it? That is just a muah chef kiss. Fucking hilarious.
I think this isnt just a political move but a tactical one. Imagine your a ukrainian fighting non stop. Then this ceasefire happens and you get to breathe for a second. You get 3 days where your not fearing for your life 24/7. It shows you what peace could be like. Then your leaders try to say you need to keep fighting while they are refusing Russias permanent ceasefire option a few weeks later. All your gonna be thinking about is those 3 days, and how if theyd just agree you could have that again. The Ukrainians are conscripts. They arent a professional military mostly. So this sort of thing has a real chance of getting some of them to just straight up mutiny if the talks fall thru. Which puts even more pressure on the Ukrainians to take whatever deal is offered.
Reminds me a bit of the impromptu Christmas truce of the first winter of WWI.
The soldiers clambered out of their trenches, chatted, played football, and enjoyed life. The soldiers learned to see the other side as humans, just like them.
The following Christmases the soldiers were under strict orders to keep shooting on Christmas and not dare consort with the enemy.
I mean yeah. All it would take to end this war no matter what any leader says is for the people actually fighting to say, “You know what fuck this. I’m not doing this anymore.” and throw down their guns, and surrender. It wouldnt be the first time historically that has happened either. In Stalingrad Hitler ordered his men to hold and they surrendered to the Soviets anyway. That turned the tide of the war. I’ve always said if the USA and China ever go to war and they draft me I’ll go, and just immediately surrender to China. I’d then of course offer to join the PLA and fight on their side lol. If they’d have me.
Also it gives Russia 3 days to resupply and regroup which they probably need having taken a lot of ground lately.
Sure, but the Ukrainians can use those 3 days to do the same thing. And the way things are, that means the Russian army loses momentum while Ukrainians gain respite (if they actually go for the ceasefire). Don’t get me wrong, I agree with Putin’s decision. It’s the right thing to do, both morally and politically. Especially for the reasons to outline (but I think in Putin’s mind he’s just trying to present some good faith on Russia’s behalf, and he’s probably hoping there’s no incident in Moscow while a bunch of BRICS leaders and other world leaders gather together). But militarily it might turn out to hurt the Russian effort more than it would help.
