Please limit posts about the ongoing situation to this thread for the time being (as long as this is pinned). Please include sources for any news to avoid spreading misinformation.
Please limit posts about the ongoing situation to this thread for the time being (as long as this is pinned). Please include sources for any news to avoid spreading misinformation.
— 🇮🇷/🇮🇱 What was the reason Iran agreed to the ceasefire, and did Israel ‘win’? I will explain it to you straight.
In the opening strike, due to a combination of widespread internal sabotage and extensive Israeli airstrikes, most of Iran’s long/medium range air defenses were wiped out.
Since day 2 or 3 of the war, the Israelis have operated with almost complete freedom over Iran’s skies. First in the West, then gradually expanding to the center. We saw even UAVs operating quite freely at some point, a tell tale sign that something is truly wrong. This matter of air superiority is key to understanding the missile situation.
While Iran still has tens of thousands of ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers, that’s not the issue at all. The issue is, due to total Israeli air superiority, no large-scale missile attack could be staged without receiving an immediate preemptive strike from the enemy. The moment Iran takes the launchers out of the underground base, Israel detects this, and strikes with impunity.
This forced Iran to carry out missile operations with smaller hit-and-run tactics, using older long range missiles from bases in the Center and the East, and unfortunately Iran’s capability to respond in large volumes gradually declined.
In these circumstances, realistically, a war cannot be maintained. Since the first few days, real deterrence was already gone, despite some periodic strikes on ‘less than relevant’ targets (with the notable exception of Weizmann institute and Unit 8200 Logistics HQ). Launching 10-20 missiles daily would be a waste if it is not an instrument to a wider military objective.
Militarily speaking, Israel is the clear winner, and there is no sugarcoating this. However, politically, Israel lost. The Israelis did not achieve most of their main objectives. The Islamic Republic still stands, Iran’s nuclear program still has a future, and martyred commanders have been replaced.
Israel’s main achievement in this war is the near complete dismantlement of Iranian AD sites, and as a result, the successful suppression of large-scale missile fire from Iran. This forces Iran into a corner, as it was no longer able to keep up with the escalation.
The problem now is the following: Israel will use this ceasefire to re-arm itself. It will prepare for another war, more aggression, and to gradually achieve the goal they really wanted in the first place; regime change in Iran. It is also likely that they will try to implement the ‘Lebanon model’ in Iran — and strike targets inside Iran during the ceasefire, with relative impunity and no response.
How will Iran deal with this issue? Iran also has to rebuild its capabilities. Once again, missiles and launchers are not the issue. Iran will repair the collapsed tunnel entrances of missile bases in the West, and almost all missile bases (with the exception of Tabriz) will become operational again. But then what? The air defense network is gone, the same situation will instantly repeat itself.
Iran somehow has to find a way to guarantee that this ceasefire is not one-sided, that it rebuilds its capabilities, and that it finds a solution that guarantees its own survival and prevents any new Israeli aggression. In my opinion, the only way this can be done is rushing towards a nuclear bomb, nothing more and nothing less.
Because I respect my readers’ intelligence, I will not pretend like this was some sort of ‘military win’ for Iran, although Israel did not fully win either.
But please read my analysis above, there are some nuances and some important points (in the political scene for example, Israel lost).
An advice to my colleagues of other channels: If we cannot acknowledge our own shortcomings and defeats, then we will never improve. Now is the time for self-reflection.
Iran has lots of work to do. So let’s get to work.
I will always stand with the Islamic Republic and its leadership, no matter what happens.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Let me know your thoughts on this analysis @[email protected] @[email protected] and whoever is online!
I’m hesitant to make much of an assessment until I really know how much and in what ways this has damaged Israel. I don’t get the impression that winning is as important for Iran as is defeating the entity. I’m in no position to ask anyone to make sacrifices, but fighting for an objective of liberation or justice carries a weight that trading blows in a slap fight does not. Even if these are pretty hard slaps.
I agree with comrade Ivy and I hope Iran keeps their insistence on the last hit. It not only establishes something of a power dynamic, but it sends a message to the muslim brotherhood of the region and pan-arabism that has the power to knit these neighbors together in mutual defense of western hegemony. It’s fucking insane to me there are US military bases anywhere but the US. It’s not 1915 anymore, and these countries can handle their own security guarantees now. The only threat is the US and Israel, so what’s the point of just letting yourself get captured by them and drug into their psychotic adventurism. I hope that this sense of the moment coalesces into a resistance movement. If this sets up the dominoes to fall for the empire’s foothold, then we can look back soon and see it in a new light of success.
I hope Iran negotiated to get some good Russian AD out of this. Putin said he had offered to co-develop an AD program with Iran before, but Iran turned them down. If true, that’s a big L. We all know without air superiority, the IOF is a bunch of stupid kids that have to run from anything bigger than a rock. A land invasion of Iran would be a disaster for Israel. Israel knew what Iran’s strength was and prepared for it with a multilayered anti-missile defense that took a hell of a pounding before it went down, but it seems like Iran’s AD was flimsy against Israel’s air force. If they had prepared for Israel’s offense as much as Israel had, this might have been very one sided.
I’m writing this without looking at what’s going on right now, so maybe this is out of date already. I’m hesitant to say what outcomes there are for Iran or Israel. I will say if there are any people who have summarily lost in this ceasefire, its the Palestinians. Israel has been in full-on aushwitz mode for two weeks. something like 450-500 confirmed deaths and thousands of wounded. There are no functional hospitals any longer. Supplies are gone. The only way to get food is playing squid game every day. Watching Gazans joyously cheering for the missiles raining on Tel Aviv while they starve to death must feel like there’s a reason to hold on. That coming to an end would be like seeing the Soviets get defeated just outside the gates.
Armchair tankie sicko that I am (apparently) I wanted to see the occupied territories reduced to dust, and every person who ever served in the IOF hung until dead. I don’t need to tell anyone here what history is filled with, which is why the rare occasion of justice and triumph over oppression and despicable cruelty burns so fiercely in our hearts.
As comrade Ivy also mentioned. The UNSC – the UN writ large is fucking trash and should be abolished, or the US have its permanent member status card shredded. I’ve always maintained the UN is the water that rinses the blood from the hands of the US empire. I don’t know how anyone could believe anything else. The ICC/ICJ are just tools of international apartheid oppression. The hague is a museum of self-righteousness. In every way the UN has failed the people and nations it pretends to protect, but allows for the real abusers to act with impunity.
Loose threads are the strange media blackout and apparent confusion. It’s worrisome that in a moment of war, the US has the power to seize all public comms because the bullshit global hegemony of US tech companies. I was pretty disappointed with Pakistan. Talk is cheap. But then I was seeing a lot of psychotic hindu nationalists screaming this is the time to wipe out Pakistan for good, so yeah. Yemen is still amazing, but didn’t seem to be able to do more than do some PR and fire a single missile that was intercepted. Hezbollah looks like they tried to retake control of the border, but Shitrael was too prepared for that. Limits of power. I hope there’s more going on. Another unexpected event was Israel invading Iraqi airspace and attacking a radar system at a US military base? What?
No one here thinks this is over. Maybe shit is popping off again right now. This outcome is unexpected – or at least jarring. Hopefully the coming situation favors the resistance more than it favors Shitrael. The zionist tumor must be purged from humanity and urgently. I also continue to stand firmly with all our West Asian comrades in the fight against imperialism, colonialism and genocide.
I think you put my biggest gut punch for this in words I could not, with “this feels like the USSR signing a cease fire right at the gates.” but even during the active conflict I was just constantly feeling gutpunched about how, no one was willing to fight with Iran, the hardest step is being the first one in the conflict, I was really hoping that if the war started, unequivicaly with an attack on Iran, more nations would be willing to lend a hand. Instead we saw the world stand and point fingers, and those sympethetic to Iran atleast on paper did nothing more than scream condemnations.
My thoughts are, given that Iran did not control its airspace, a topic that I have been unable to verify outside of Western sources, this could be considered a prudent move. A nation can have all the weaponry in the world and if they are unable to fire it, then what use is their. That being said, the airspace control, given that was not something I could find out of none western sources, I cannot see a reason why they would sign a cease fire, ESPECIALY right after the United States did a bombing run.
I also do not understand why Iran would sign a deal as lopsided as this one is preported to be, where Iran, who has been agressed on twice, must lay down its arms a whole 12 hours before Israel does, and the US is not mentioned outside of being the mediator, a role that it would be entirely unsuited for, both because it is a part of the war directly, they are too close to Israel, and because the US does not have offical relations with both nations. I could not think of a worse nation infact to be the medator, atleast from Irans point of view.
We know that Israel had been calling for a cease fire soon, and so that timing is not completly out of question, and I also understand that Lemmygrad, even when not intended will become an echo chamber, so all my information is coming with a grain of salt.
I take a little issue with saying the military victory is with Israel, as the reports I had seen is that they had their citizens trying to flee, and the stated goals of “Rising Lion” where not met, from what I have read Iran’s nuclear program is essentaly untouched, they could not chop the head off the military. I think it is important to understand a military victory is not always who does more damage, but who got farther to their goals, it is possible, though crazy, to win a war while loosing most battles. However I do agree that if the air superiority was lost, a fact I am not arguing but slightly skeptical of, Israel was able to effectivly cut off the ability for Iran to respond.
I also hesitate to say that Iran won politicaly, because while yes they hold more international support, they where unable to get put under another nations Nuclear Umbrella, not Russia not China not Pakistan, when Iran entered the war, atleast from where I was sitting, they where not able to get much more than words on paper from surronding nations, and when the US did join, the only others who stood up in fighting where Yeman, who is already a part of the war, and likely starting to feel the effects of that, and Palistine/Gaza, who as they are under genocide where unable to add anything new to the table. Both of these “additions” also where already at war with israel. I would count that as atleast at some part a political loss for Iran, especialy given the fact that when they attacked a US military base, a Valid target if the US by action declares war, Qatar said they may retalate in defence, Qatar who I might add condemed both the US and israli attacks. I am not sure then I could call this a political win for Iran either.
I hope they are able to repair their AD system, and be prepared for an attack soon. I also hope they consider making a nuclear bomb, not because I like them or I want to armchair their development, but the US and its ilk are always going to say Iran has them or is almost their and working on it, If they had a pair, then maybe they would not get attacked for working on one.
One last side note as this conflict comes to an end, this conflict ruined my already rock bottom trust in the UNSC, as all the public meetings where not any discussions, but an opening statement from each nation, adjorned to have back room talks. Each nation could say what ever random BS they wanted have it sound offical as it came from the SC, and then leave without anyone being able to counter unless they came soon after in the near arbitrary order.