With US President Donald Trump’s opening talks with Moscow on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, denying Russia’s role as an aggressor, it more important than ever to scrutinise China’s own peace narrative on the “Ukraine crisis” (乌克兰危机). Understanding its alignment with Russian interests can help interpret Beijing’s position towards any potential outcome of US-Russia talks, and ensure that Europe is clear-eyed about what to expect from Beijing in that regard.
The issue is urgent as Beijing has already been ramping up messaging efforts towards Europe. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Director of the Office of the CCP’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, and China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi tried to leverage the shift in Washington’s position and charm his European counterparts with calls for “all parties and stakeholders directly involved” to participate in peace talks, emphasising the necessity of Europe’s involvement in any settlement. Yet soon after, President Xi Jinping spoke to Vladimir Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, stating that “China is pleased to see the positive efforts made by Russia and all parties concerned to defuse the crisis” (中方乐见俄罗斯及有关各方为化解危机作出积极努力).
Pinning down Beijing’s line can be helpful, as China’s efforts to present itself as a constructive actor are likely to intensify amid tensions between Europe and the US on Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Especially as Beijing’s practical actions as the key enabler of Moscow’s war machine have already been exemplified through “convincing evidence” of China-based production of lethal drones for Russia, something which breaches Beijing’s own red lines, or the fact that around 70 percent of the machine tools, and 90 percent of the microelectronics Russia imports, which are crucial for maintaining military capabilities, come from China according to some estimations.
An analysis of Beijing’s high-profile statements on the war, and a review of 68 governmental statements issued between May 2024 (release of China-Brazil joint “six point consensus”) and December 2024, reveal a gap between rhetoric and substance. While Beijing emphasises “peace,” it offers no clear vision of how the resolution of the “conflict” should look. The so-called Chinese “peace proposal” narrative focuses instead on framing the ground rules of the “conflict’s” conduct, on blaming the West for sparking the “conflict” and enabling its continuation through support for Kyiv, as well as on legitimising Russia’s interests and concerns.
How has Beijing’s narrative evolved, what are its goals and how does its rhetoric relate to Russia’s position?
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